Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.618964 1.888037 2.167783 2.478774 2.813337 3.161062 3.548431
2024-12-15 1.164145 1.531008 1.936131 2.409924 2.942613 3.517524 4.179642
2024-12-22 0.921840 1.330599 1.802606 2.374204 3.035443 3.765790 4.623506
2024-12-29 0.770765 1.213579 1.745882 2.409869 3.195963 4.080070 5.133879
2025-01-05 0.643111 1.104724 1.681614 2.421019 3.314443 4.334942 5.566495
2025-01-12 0.519391 0.983670 1.588745 2.386136 3.369211 4.508923 5.900456
2025-01-19 0.477335 0.967332 1.624142 2.505277 3.605282 4.892136 6.474309
2025-01-26 0.443288 0.957317 1.664304 2.627826 3.843778 5.277269 7.050102
2025-02-02 0.418526 0.957351 1.715474 2.762733 4.096441 5.678825 7.645253
2025-02-09 0.403065 0.969187 1.781237 2.915604 4.370997 6.106662 8.271898
2025-02-16 0.369364 0.947901 1.798422 3.003129 4.562823 6.434473 8.780158
2025-02-23 0.320694 0.895914 1.768289 3.025112 4.670052 6.658582 9.164293
2025-03-02 0.246363 0.792604 1.663046 2.949790 4.661105 6.752080 9.407420
2025-03-09 0.183429 0.697097 1.561836 2.875015 4.650034 6.841902 9.646554
2025-03-16 0.139150 0.626422 1.490694 2.835171 4.678243 6.974715 9.931993
2025-03-23 0.115254 0.593982 1.477077 2.874691 4.809475 7.235154 10.372364
2025-03-30 0.090786 0.553238 1.446259 2.886955 4.902800 7.446959 10.752628
2025-04-06 0.064051 0.496322 1.383107 2.848454 4.925644 7.568209 11.020631
2025-04-13 0.060555 0.505505 1.434498 2.979903 5.178407 7.981364 11.648755
2025-04-20 0.057696 0.515996 1.488113 3.114851 5.436314 8.401636 12.286468
2025-04-27 0.056390 0.531274 1.550382 3.263111 5.712824 8.846233 12.955079
2025-05-04 0.057075 0.553385 1.625234 3.430770 6.016357 9.325968 13.668014
2025-05-11 0.050838 0.549778 1.652812 3.526606 6.221737 9.680636 14.226627